Leading indicators can be defined as safety-related variables that proactively measure organizational characteristics with the intention of predicting and, subsequently, avoiding process safety incidents. Leading indicators become especially powerful when combined with advanced statistical methods, including predictive analytics.

Case Study

Kestrel developed a major incident predictive analytical model for the transportation industry that is also applicable to the process industries. Using regularly updated inspection data, the model was created to provide major incident probabilities for each transportation segment over a six-month period.

Additionally, the model identifies the variables that are significantly contributing to major incidents, thereby showing the company which factors to address to prevent future incidents. Model validation revealed that it could successfully predict the location and time frame of 75% of major incidents.

Broader Applicability

Companies in the process industries are generating and recording unprecedented amounts of data associated with operations. Companies that strive to be best-in-class need to use that data intelligently to guide future business decision-making.

The versatility of predictive analytics, including the method described in this case study, can be applied to help companies analyze a wide variety of problems. In this way, companies can:

• Explore and investigate past performance
• Gain the insights needed to turn vast amounts of data into relevant and actionable information
• Create statistically valid models to facilitate data-driven decisions

Join Kestrel at the 2016 International Symposium

Kestrel’s William Brokaw will be presenting the case study discussed above on Tuesday, October 25 at 1:15 p.m. at the Mary Kay O’Connor Process Safety Center 2016 International Symposium: Applying Predictive Analytics to Process Safety Leading Indicators.

MKOPSC 2016 International Symposium
October 25-27, 2016
Hilton Conference Center
College Station, Texas

Kestrel’s experts will also be on hand throughout the Symposium to talk with you. Stop by and see us at our booth. We welcome the opportunity to learn more about your needs and to discuss how we help our chemical and oil & gas clients manage environmental, safety, and quality risks; improve safety performance, and achieve regulatory compliance assurance.